| Abstract |
In the transition potential sub-model stage specific transitions of interest have been run as submodel.
These transitions represent the most important land use change categories that have been
mapped in the study area during the reference period 2001 – 2010 on the basis of the analysis of
Landsat satellite images and field knowledge. The predominant change categories identified in the
VGTB were the following: Forest to Cropland, Forest to Grassland, Cropland to Forestland, Cropland
to Grassland, Grassland to Cropland and Grassland to Settlement. The detailed description of the
historical land change assessment is reported in the technical report of the LUCCI Deliverable
D5.14.
During this modelling stage the potential of land to transition is modelled, providing as output a
transition potential map. Such output is a map of suitability for each transition, which is an
expression of time-specific potential of change. Since land use change dynamic can be influenced by
landscape determinants of land-use changes such as distance to roads and to land cover classes,
their explanatory value has been tested with the Cramer’s V value, which is a measure of the
intercorrelation of two discrete variables (see Sheskin, 1997 for more details on the calculation of
the Cramer’s V value). According to Idrisi (2012), the landscape determinants that have a Cramer’s
V value higher than 0.14 are considered relevant and hence have been included in the model. |
? |